August 18, 2026
By Evan Lepler

Even with Championship Weekend scheduled to start on a Thursday for the first time, there’s still a longer window between the divisional title games and the semifinals than any other season in UFA history. This extra time gives coaches a greater chance to study film, tinker with tactics, and contemplate key wrinkles to use in big moments. It also provides us regular frisbee thinkers more days to wonder about what might happen. 

Consequently, I’ve been busy thinking about different storylines, subplots, and possibilities. Either Austin, Minnesota, New York, or Oakland will win a championship a week from Friday in Madison, and there’s plenty of fascinating angles to ponder as the opening pull nears. 

So for today’s Toss, here are some thoughts, questions, and general ramblings about what’s coming soon at Breese Stevens Field.

Will great offense be the difference in determining the champion?

For a long time, being the league’s top offense was a pretty trusty indication that a team would take the title. In fact, from 2014 to 2022, the UFA’s leader in offensive hold rate won the title seven times in eight seasons, including six years in a row from 2016 through 2022. 

Over the past three seasons, though, something changed. The Atlanta Hustle finished each of the past three years as the team with the top hold rate, but they only made the semifinals once. Whether that’s a sign that the Hustle struggled in really big playoff moments, had some brutally bad luck, or that perhaps the pathway to winning a championship in the UFA has shifted—or maybe all of the above—could be vigorously debated. But it has been four years since the league’s leader in hold rate also hoisted the trophy. 

In 2023, New York won for the third time in four years, but the Empire’s hold rate ranked third. (Their break rate was number one.) 

In 2024, Minnesota shocked the world in windy Salt Lake City, closing the season with the 7th-best hold rate in the league. (Their break rate was number three.) 

In 2025, Boston’s offense ranked sixth. A decade earlier, the 2015 Spiders also had the 6th-best offense in the league. (The Glory only had the league’s 7th-best break rate, but were number two in D-line conversion rate, capitalizing on their opportunities at an extraordinary level at Championship Weekend.) 

Now, it’s reasonable to wonder if these rankings are that relevant. After all, the numbers can get skewed by a few particularly windy games, and a team can be more complete, confident, and efficient at the end of a season even if their early inconsistencies bring down the full-season stats.

But considering that seven out of eight champs had the league’s number one hold rate—note: all of these stats are including playoff performance—it does send a message that this might matter. 

So what does that mean for 2026? 

Well, New York’s currently got the best O-line hold rate in the league (and the third-best in UFA history), scoring on 79.5 percent of their offensive points, or nearly four out of every five. The Spiders are second in the league at 77.8 percent, while the Wind Chill are fourth (72.0 percent) and the Sol are seventh (68.9 percent). 

We shall see how these offenses hold up against four of the league’s top five defenses, as the Wind Chill, Spiders, Sol, and Empire rank second through fifth, in that order, in break rate for the season. When they get a break opportunity, though, no team has been more cutthroat efficient than New York, who leads the league in D-line conversion rate at 67.9 percent. 

I wish I had more of an insightful declaration about what’s going to unfold based upon all this data, but while we wait for the semis to start, it’s pretty good fodder for pregame pontification.

Young players will be the backbone of the league’s next champion.

I cannot wait to see what the league’s next generation of stars does under pressure at Breese Stevens Field next week. 

For Austin, I’m thinking about dynamic defenders George Gust and Owen Johnson, 18 and 20 years old, respectively. And let’s not forget that Myles Armstrong and Mark Henke are both just 22.

For Oakland, it’s basically half the team. Raekwon Adkins, Carter Lankford, and Anton Orme were all playing college frisbee this spring. Stefan McCall and Mo Awais have many more years of college frisbee ahead. Chander Boyd-Fliegel, Dexter Clyburn, and James Whealan all finished college way back in 2025. And then there’s Leo Gordon, Evan Magsig, and Robin Vickers Batzdaorf, who are all still 25 or younger. 

But Minnesota’s young stable of talent might be even more impressive. Will Brandt, Justin Burnett, and Paul Krenik are all just 24 and still getting better. Cam Lacy is 23, the Sueflow twins—Kyle and Owen— are just 22, and then there’s Nate De Morgan, Zach Morton, and Thomas Shope, who are all still 20 years old. Any of these individuals could realistically swing a game at Championship Weekend.

New York’s most talented youngsters are mostly still biding their time and unlikely to be among the active 20 at Championship Weekend, though Charlie Panarella, who’s just starting his junior year at Georgetown, is the exception. With 19 goals and nine blocks in his nine regular season games, the still-developing defender will likely draw one of the Spiders’ quickest cutters in next Thursday’s semifinal.

Which injured standouts could return?

In their West Division victory over Salt Lake, the Oakland Spiders were missing Dan Ritthaler and Walker Frankenberg on offense and without Itay Chang—who wasn’t hurt but had a life conflict—and Seamus Robinson on defense. There’s also Kyle Lew, who hasn’t played in a UFA game since early May. It feels more likely than not that several of these people could return in Madison, but the team won’t unveil their official roster until next week. 

There’s no doubt the Spiders have plenty of depth, and the next man up mentality has served them well, but getting as many members of this quintet back on the field for the semifinal against New York feels quite important, considering the Empire’s collective firepower, experience, and skill. 

Meanwhile, Austin and Minnesota are also hopeful to get a boost from the return of Connor DeLuna and Thomas Shope, respectively. DeLuna is one of the Sol’s leaders in blocks as well as a primary striker for the team’s break attack, while Shope, who hasn’t played in a UFA game since early June, is a versatile weapon who could positively impact the game with his youthful athleticism on either Wind Chill line. 

Assuming the Empire don’t experience any surprising nicks during their preparation, New York should have a pretty similar group to the 20-man squad that beat Boston in the East final. Though one wonders if the speedster Alex Davis, who also battled through an injury early in the season, might be activated to give the Empire a dash more explosiveness. Davis has plenty of Championship Weekend experience, having competed in the league’s marquee event as a Flyer in 2021, 2022, and 2024. 

Buzzer-Beating Big Men

The last time we had a Championship Weekend without either Jeff Babbitt or Jacob Fairfax, Minnesota’s Zach Morton was 11 years old. True story. 

That was 2017, when Babbitt’s Empire missed the playoffs and Fairfax’s Flyers lost in the South finals. But after seven straight Champ Weekends with either Babbitt, Fairfax, or both of these all-time end-of-quarter beasts lurking as time ticked down, there might be some new faces making plays at the buzzer. 

The aforementioned Morton, who led the Wind Chill in goals as a 20-year-old rookie, is certainly one to watch in Hail Mary situations. Austin doesn’t have much size on their D-line, so the Sol are vulnerable to conceding late scores.

No team has more sky-scraping leapers than New York though. Ben Jagt’s grab on the last play of the third against Boston in the East final was a massive moment in that game, and the veteran Empire big man is still so dangerous in these jump ball scenarios. New York also has Nick Whitlock as an end-of-quarter menace, labeled by his coaches as the best special teamer in the league because of his huge pulls and towering size. 

From 2013 to 2023, we witnessed 21 buzzer-beaters in 10 Championship Weekends, including nine in championship games. But over the past two years, there was just one. 

Have defenses started to guard these critical moments better? Or are we due for more momentum-shifting madness in Madison?

It will be captivating to see which team handles these situations best, as they could go a long way toward determining who’s raising the trophy on Friday night. 

*****

The most hardcore frisbee fans might enjoy this little trip down memory lane. 

Here’s a chart of all the buzzer-beaters we’ve seen in Championship Weekend history.

Championship Weekend Buzzer Beaters 
(Defined as a goal scored with no time remaining in the quarter)

*Championship Game

If you want to impress your fellow frisbee fanatics with a little trivia, note that only one player in UFA history with both a buzzer-beating Championship Weekend goal and a buzzer-beating Championship Weekend assist is New York’s Marques Brownlee. 

When I informed Brownlee of this unique achievement after the 2022 semifinals, he chimed in with a splendid characterization.

“Versatile and clutch,” he said. “I like it.”

Only nine more days until we find out who can deliver the next unforgettable last-second snag.