August 26, 2026
By Sam Weiger 

This year’s final four group has everything you could ask for: the greatest franchise ever looking to revive their dynasty, a young group aiming to prove that you don’t need to build a superteam to win, one of the strongest defenses the league has ever seen, and the underdog that keeps proving the doubters wrong. No matter what happens on Thursday night, all four teams have plenty of storylines surrounding them, setting the stage for a must-see Friday final.

New York Empire vs. Oakland Spiders
Thursday, August 27 - 6:00 PM/ET - Watch link

In recent years, we haven't seen a Championship Weekend game like this one, with two opponents coming in with multiple UFA titles. New York enters this year's final four with three titles, and Oakland comes in with two.

The recency of the titles tells the whole story of this game. The Empire won all three titles in the last six UFA seasons, while Oakland won their titles way back in the first four. Because of New York's recent dominance, oddsmakers will naturally lean toward them as favorites.

But on paper, Oakland should be more than capable of keeping pace with the current title favorite Empire. The big question is going to be experience. We’ve seen experience and a lack thereof make all the difference in these Championship Weekend battles, and the gap in experience between these two teams is night and day. This could ultimately be the deciding factor when push comes to shove.

Many of New York’s top players, including Ben Jagt, Jack Williams, John Randolph, Marques Brownlee, and Antoine Davis have already been to and excelled on this stage. While it’s no guarantee that they won’t play nervous, odds are that at least a couple of these five players will deliver impactful performances, like playoff standouts Williams or Davis.

Then you shift to Oakland’s roster, and you’ve got just two players with Championship Weekend experience: Jason Vallee and Tony Goss. Neither player made much of an impact in their past games at this stage, so very little can be said about their potential impact on Thursday night.

Over the past few seasons, it’s been rare to see a team without many players with final four experience win their semifinal. We watched Atlanta fall last year, DC and Seattle in 2024, and Austin in 2023. While Salt Lake in 2023 was an exception, they weren’t facing a team with tons of Championship Weekend experience like this year’s Empire.

While the Empire have a clear experience advantage, the Spiders have a clear youth advantage. Even with the lengthy two-week gap between the quarterfinals and semis, both teams are unquestionably feeling the wear and tear, but the Empire should be feeling it more. Jagt is 34, Williams is almost 32, Brownlee, and Davis is 33. 

While New York’s seismic offseason pickups in Alex Atkins and Daan De Marrée have absolutely helped offset the issue of aging superstars, they’ll be facing a Spiders team with almost all of their starters under 30 years of age. Oakland is the youngest team left in the postseason, and what cannot be overlooked is the fact that they enter this game as close to full strength as they’ve been in any game of this magnitude.

Oakland is expected to have Daniel Ritthaler and Walker Frankenberg back, and a handful of potential game-changers who have been in and out of the lineup all year will be active, including Raekwon Adkins, Anton Orme, Adam Rees, Carter Lankford, Dillon Whited, and Stefan McCall. This Spiders team will be noticeably deeper than the team they rolled out against Minnesota in their only loss of the year, a game in which they were without a UFA MVP candidate in Ritthaler, the red-hot Adkins, and one of their strongest rookies in Orme. The fact that they were missing those three key players and lost by just one goal to Minnesota makes it very hard to consider them much of an underdog at all in this game.

Even with so many of their players in and out of the lineup this year, Oakland has consistently remained at the top of the ranks in so many offensive and defensive statistical categories this year. The Spiders are third in the league in goals per game (24.23), first in goals against (16.31), second in hold rate (77.78 percent), second in huck rate (75.23 percent), second in blocks per game (12.42), third in opponent turnovers forced per game (21.85), the list goes on and on.

But the Empire have them beat in most offensive categories, including goals per game (25.64, first in UFA), hold rate (79.48 percent, first in UFA), and huck rate (77.07 percent, first in UFA). New York's league-best offense against Oakland's defense is expected to be the key matchup to watch in Thursday’s opener.

The Empire offense has really only been slowed down once all year. While Oakland's defensive stats are elite across the board, I can't get past the fact that they have only really faced one elite offense this year and weren't that disruptive in that game. They allowed Minnesota to complete 11 of 15 hucks, complete 95 percent of their throws, and finish the game with a hold rate of 80 percent.

Even with all of Oakland's talented defenders, it's hard for me to picture a game where the talent is enough to contain New York's offense. Their star-studded, cohesive, experienced, and well coached O-line is a tier above anything the Spiders have faced this year. Against a stingy Boston defense, the Empire did a great job efficiently and repeatedly moving the frisbee downfield with an excellent mix of quick deep shots and fast-paced dishes in sequence. Their ability to play fast is very key against Oakland's young and swift defense, and the Empire also have the taller unit, so the matchup tilts in New York's favor in pretty much every facet of it.

It is this matchup advantage in particular that makes New York the favorite to win this game. 

One Big Number:
1 - New York's offense isn't just elite, it's at an all-time great level. The Empire are on pace to become the first team since turnovers were recorded (2013) to finish the year with the most goals per game and fewest turns per game.
7 - Thursday's semifinal marks the first time all year Oakland will have the following seven players active: Frankenberg, Ritthaler, Boyd-Fliegel, Adkins, Orme, Lankford, and McCall. This group includes three of their most impactful O-liners (Frankenberg, Ritthaler, and Boyd-Fliegel), their top D-liner (Lankford), one of their strongest rookies (Orme), and two players peaking in performance (Adkins and McCall).

Austin Sol vs. Minnesota Wind Chill 
Thursday, August 27 - 8:30 PM/ET - Watch link

Austin, the squad many consider the weakest at Championship Weekend, gets to play the underdog role again against a team that was itself this overlooked underdog just a few years back.

The Sol have been dismissed because of their easy schedule, thinner depth compared to other teams, and regular season stumbles against teams beneath their level. By now, they’ve laid all of these criticisms to rest.

Despite having the easiest regular season schedule by opponent win percentage in 2025 (.362), and stumbles against weaker opponents in some of those games (two goal win over Houston and two one-goal wins over San Diego), Austin got past their hardest opponent of the season in the South Division title game to reach their second Championship Weekend in the last four years.

The main reason behind their win over the Flyers was the roster depth that was viewed as thinner than teams like Carolina, Oakland, and Minnesota. A team that seemed to rely on just a couple superstars, Kyle Henke and Evan Swiatek, showed depth that many didn’t expect to see from them. Mark Henke and Jackson Potts were the difference-makers we knew they could be, Matt Armour surpassed expectations for a second straight game, and new faces Owen Johnson and Aaron Barcio made crucial plays.

Are the Sol as deep on paper as their semifinal opponent? Of course not, but they were also facing a much deeper Flyers team in the quarterfinals, proving that depth alone shouldn’t decide the outcome of this game. The real reason they remain underdogs is the undeniable fact that their defense has been weaker than Minnesota’s.

While it’s true that the Wind Chill haven’t been as tight as usual on defense, they’ve still been more disruptive. In the Central Division Championship Game, the Chill held a dangerous AlleyCats offense to a 92 percent completion rate and forced 20 turns, marking their second straight game forcing 20 turns against a playoff team.

Paul Krenik, one of Minnesota’s playoff heroes at Championship Weekend last year, is heating up heading into this year’s final four. He’s recorded at least one block in each of his last four games, a feat he hadn’t achieved in any previous season. After his five block masterclass against the Hustle in the semifinals last year, there’s no doubt he’s a key player to watch on Thursday night.

And then there’s Mr. Primetime, Justin Burnett, who has yet to record a block this postseason. After his seven-block postseason last year, it just feels like he’s due for a big game, and a big one against Austin would be absolutely massive. But we can’t sugarcoat the fact that he was noticeably outgunned on multiple occassions by Indy’s stars in the quarterfinals, so we’ll see how he fares in potentially key matchups against Austin’s really quick and athletic receivers like Swiatek and Mark Henke. 

For Austin, the younger Henke remains an intriguing name to watch. He caught fire last year, putting up two MVP-caliber games in a row, and we just watched him put together by far his biggest showing of 2026 against Carolina in the team’s last outing. He’s such a dangerous and versatile player that could get shifted from O-line to D-line at any time depending on game flow, so I’m very interested to see if new co-coaches Casey Hogg and Joe Iannacone can maximize the impact of the 22-year-old.

With Austin peaking at the right moment, while Minnesota enters the final four with a decent showing against Indy and no other playoff action, it’s hard for me to mark Minnesota as a clear favorite in this semi. Their defense hasn’t quite lived up to its name, and while their offense has gotten better this year thanks to strong seasons from Gordon Larson, Will Brandt, Zach Morton, and Noah Coolman, I don’t expect a big Wind Chill blowout.

One of the X-factors at previous weekends, wind, doesn’t appear to be a factor on Thursday night. In past years, Minnesota gained a massive edge with the wind, so it’s worth noting that edge is unlikely to play a role in this game. And without any abnormally hot conditions, Austin won’t have a heat advantage.

But it’s no secret that Minnesota’s fan base has historically traveled to Madison in bigger numbers than any other Championship Weekend team in recent years, so this will definitely feel like a home game for the Chill. Austin has been slightly less impressive on the road this year, but it shouldn’t be too much of a difference-maker. The Sol picked up big wins over Atlanta and San Diego on the road this year, and also played a great game in their road loss to the Flyers.

One Big Number:
10 - Austin had 10 players reach three combined total scores and blocks in the quarterfinals, equal to the number of players Minnesota and Carolina had.
86.63 - The Wind Chill have been surprisingly poor at defending opponent red zone opportunities, allowing an 86.63 percent conversion rate.