August 22, 2024
By Sam Weiger
Minnesota Wind Chill vs. DC Breeze
Friday, August 23 - 7:00 PM/ET - Watch link
History awaits in our opening Championship Weekend game.
Two teams that have competed in the UFA since 2014 will collide for the first time, and one of them will advance to their first-ever title game.
While I've scoured for reasons to believe the Wind Chill can pull off the win, the evidence unquestionably favors the Breeze.
DC's chances of victory are enhanced by a couple of key mismatches. Their ability to limit turnovers and opponent blocks (11.85 and 6.62 per game, respectively) is a bad omen for the Wind Chill, a team that thrives on dominating those categories (11.46 blocks and 20.69 opponent turns per game).
Minnesota's other key stats since Week 11, excluding their Detroit wins, have been less than stellar. They've managed a 1-2 record, a 91.67 percent completion rate, 17.67 turns per game, and a 75.33 percent red zone conversion rate. Their recent inefficiency inside the 20-yard line is another potential advantage for the Breeze, who rank fifth in the league in red zone defense this year, allowing opponents to convert just 77.78 percent of the time.
The Breeze should also look to capitalize on Will Brandt's ongoing difficulties. Whether it's a persistent heel injury or lack of preparedness, Brandt has not looked like himself over the last couple of months. His performance in Minnesota’s quarterfinal win over Madison, marked by miscommunications and frantic decisions under pressure, is a serious cause for concern. The Breeze could run away with this semifinal if Minnesota can't find a reliable quarterback.
DC's D-line disrupted Boston's O-line by strategically deploying their top defenders, Jasper Tom and David Bloodgood, against inconsistent QB1 Ben Sadok. Given Brandt's current form, DC might implement a similar tactic.
Minnesota’s challenges are compounded by their return to the Rockies. Their previous high-altitude struggles, including 25 turnovers and a 42 percent huck completion rate, are a red flag. Based on these numbers, the Wind Chill’s recent reliance on hucks, attempting 13 or more in four of their last five games, could be a risky strategy this weekend.
If they continue to take a huck-heavy approach, pay attention to Josh Klane, who has been a recurring culprit in Minnesota's failed huck attempts against tough opponents. Last year, he completed just one of four deep throws against New York and three of seven in Colorado. DC's aggressive defensive pressure might force him to become impatient and start taking unnecessary risks.
The one bit of good news for Minnesota is that they have more Championship Weekend experience than the Breeze. Most of their top players participated in last year's dramatic semifinal against the Shred, while DC has only one player who has ever reached this stage (Charlie McCutcheon in 2022).
DC’s history of narrowly missing the semifinals (five Divisional Championship Game losses since 2014) could make Championship Weekend particularly nerve-wracking for some of the players, especially veterans who have been waiting for the opportunity for years. Keep an eye on Rowan McDonnell, whose completion rate has been subpar at 88.72 percent in DC's last seven playoff losses, well below his career average of 93.46 percent.
If the Breeze struggle with pre-game jitters, it will probably manifest early in the game. The Wind Chill could capitalize on this by intensifying their effort on both sides of the disc during the early stages of the first quarter, so we'll be monitoring both teams closely right from the start.
One Big Number:
5 - The last five UFA champions finished the year in the top three in turnovers per game. DC is the only remaining team in that elite group.
93.29 - Minnesota's top three throwers (Klane, Brandt, and Tristan Van de Moortele) have a combined completion rate of 93.29 percent, which is the lowest among any semifinalist's top three passers.
Carolina Flyers vs. Seattle Cascades
Friday, August 23 - 9:30 PM/ET - Watch link
The Seattle Cascades' Cinderella story is unparalleled in UFA history.
We have never seen a team with a winning percentage as low as .333 in the previous season make it to Championship Weekend.
While Seattle's achievement is monumental, I'm still reluctant to classify them as a championship contender. The definition of a championship contender as "a team with a high probability of winning a title, given their results" puts my reservations into perspective.
Yes, they proved everyone wrong by upsetting Salt Lake, but beating a team with a great record doesn’t automatically turn you into a contender. Most champions eventually have to face a championship contender in good form, and it was no secret that the Shred looked like a shell of their former selves leading up to the West Division Championship.
If they can overcome a high-flying Carolina team on Friday, I'll have no hesitation in calling Seattle a championship contender.
Carolina has undeniably stepped up their game for the playoffs. Their completion rate has jumped to 97 percent from 94.52 percent, turnovers are down to 9.5 per game from 15.46, and O-Line conversion rate has soared to 72 percent compared to 60 percent.
The improved O-line conversion rate can be greatly attributed to the MVP-caliber play of Anders Juengst. The third-year speedster has displayed remarkable agility in beating defenders lately, echoing his history of heightened performance in the postseason. A monster game from Juengst at Championship Weekend could be a game-changer.
In his post-game interview, Juengst gave a big shout out to Elijah Long, an underrated quarterback who has quietly been a driving force behind Carolina’s higher completion rate and lower number of turnovers. Long's passing accuracy has been a constant throughout the season, but his increased usage in the playoffs has amplified his impact. He is averaging 49.5 completions per game this postseason (averaged just 36 in the regular season), and he's maintained a perfect completion percentage while throwing for an average of 410.5 yards.
Long and Juengst elevating their game amplifies the pressure on Seattle's D-line. Even if the Cascades can find a way to neutralize Allan Laviolette and Jacob Fairfax, they’ll still have to contend with Terrence Mitchell and Tobias Brooks. There might not be a matchup where Seattle would more desperately wish to toss Lukas Ambrose into a cloning machine than this one.
The ‘Scades offense will need to match Carolina’s firepower if the D-line can’t contain the deep Flyers attack. Based on Seattle’s offensive performance against the Shred, it seems they have the potential to go toe-to-toe with Carolina. An attack that typically relied on a consistent core of star players saw unexpected standout contributions from Spencer Lofink and Marc Muñoz. Against the Flyers, they’ll likely need to showcase this newfound offensive depth once again, which could prove difficult for a team with almost no Championship Weekend experience.
But Seattle does hold one clear advantage over the Flyers: acclimatization. The Cascades have played seven games in the Rockies, while the Flyers have never competed in the mountains. It will be fascinating to observe how Carolina handles these unique conditions, especially considering the altitude-induced turnover struggles of Minnesota and DC in their inaugural mountain matchups.
No matter what transpires this weekend, it's intriguing that both semifinals feature two unprecedented matchups where neither team has a home-field edge.
One Big Number:
7 - The Flyers boast a 9-1 record when Juengst finishes with a plus/minus of seven or more.
1 - Only one member of the ‘Scades, Khalif El-Salaam, has prior Championship Weekend experience. Most of Carolina's key players have competed at this prestigious event multiple times.
