One Big Number For The Final Eight Teams


Photo by Matthew Brooks

August 5, 2026
By Sam Weiger

All eight teams set to compete in Divisional Championship Games carry a notable statistic worth weighing as they head into the final knockout rounds of the season. From standout individual performances in recent weeks to impressive or troubling team-wide figures, each key number tells a vivid story about where every team stands as the quarterfinals approach.

Austin Sol: 10

Naming Carolina the favorite in the South Division Championship Game without truly evaluating their last meeting feels like a shortcut. Sure, Carolina boasts a stronger historical resume, beat more teams with playoff pedigree during the regular season, carries more roster depth on paper, owns the head-to-head record with the Sol in recent seasons, and topped Austin in their single regular-season matchup.

But looking closely at the numbers from that one matchup should give us pause before locking in our pick. 10 team statistics from the Week 12 clash show almost nothing separated Carolina and Austin.

  • Carolina put up 21 goals, Austin put up 20

  • Both squads completed passes at a 96 percent clip

  • Austin broke at a 27 percent rate, Carolina at 26 percent

  • Both defenses converted six of their chances

  • Carolina landed six hucks, Austin landed five

  • Austin cashed in on 15 red zone trips, Carolina on 14

  • Both sides committed exactly 11 turnovers

  • Carolina converted 15 O-points, Austin converted 14

  • Carolina converted 15 O-line possessions, Austin converted 14

  • Carolina finished with nine blocks, Austin had eight

Yes, the Flyers held a marginal edge, but the gap was razor-thin across the board. The Sol showed they can hang toe-to-toe with the Flyers, so assuming Austin's full roster suits up Friday night, it's genuinely a toss-up as to who holds the real advantage.

Boston Glory: -1

Just as with Carolina in the South Division, a similar case can be made against the Boston Glory, who haven't conclusively proven themselves the clear-cut favorite. The clearest evidence lies in how they've fared against the league's top-tier opponents.

Against this season's quarterfinalists, Boston holds a goal differential of negative one. There was barely any separation between them and their opponents across these three contests (two versus New York and one versus Minnesota). In their victory over the Wind Chill, their completion rate was only one percent better, they posted one less hold, one fewer turnover, and matched the Chill's block total exactly. Against the Empire, they only managed to keep pace in one of their two matchups. In their opening game against New York, they were clearly outmatched, coughing up six more turnovers, recording four fewer blocks, and falling by four goals.

So what's driving the perception of Boston as this postseason's favorite? The main case centers on Jeff Babbitt and Tannor Johnson-Go. These two enormously influential players sat out all three of those games. Babbitt is considered by many to be among the greatest players in UFA history, while Johnson-Go is the reigning Defensive Player of the Year. Both were critical contributors to last year's championship run, and both have shown no obvious signs of decline in the limited time they've played this season.

But will their return truly be enough to knock off New York and two other teams still standing? Both Babbitt and Johnson-Go are likely to carry at least some rust, considering Babbitt has appeared in only one game since early June, and Johnson-Go has played in just two over that same stretch. And those outings came against Montreal and Philly, two squads that combined for a mere four wins all season.

Carolina Flyers: 4.5

Entering the season, one of the primary factors that made the Carolina Flyers appear especially threatening was the deadly trio of Zeke Thoreson, Tobias Brooks, and Allan Laviolette on their O-line. It wasn’t until quite late in the regular season that we actually witnessed this trio truly flourishing together, since Laviolette had been battling a nagging injury he suffered in Week 4.

The 10-year veteran returned to his elite form in Week 12, and he’s sustained it ever since. Sure, the six assists and 400-plus throwing yards across those two games are encouraging signs, but what really stands out to me is his 4.5 hucks per game since his return to play.

Laviolette holds a 75 percent huck completion rate (nine of 12 huck attempts) over Carolina’s last two contests, a Week 12 victory over Austin and a first-round playoff win over San Diego. We’ve witnessed this year and last how different and dangerous the Flyers’ offense can be when Laviolette is effectively launching from deep, and we truly saw this ceiling in their most recent game, a total demolition of the Growlers.

Without Laviolette on the field at his peak this year, elite huck receivers like Brooks, Thoreson, and Jacob Fairfax were pushed into more of a throwing role, diminishing Carolina’s receiving potential. Now, with Laviolette back at his MVP-caliber level, all three of these top-tier cutters gain more chances to make big catches. While there’s a fair case that Thoreson is just as skilled throwing deep as he is receiving, the numbers show that Brooks and Fairfax thrive more as receivers.

Fairfax has definitely turned heads with his hucking skill this year, but historically, he hasn’t been recognized for throwing deep in the playoffs. He’s recorded just six hucks across 11 career playoff games since 2021*, while Laviolette has thrown 17 hucks in his last three postseasons alone. As for Brooks, it’s no secret he isn’t hesitant to take deep shots, but he isn’t nearly as efficient as Laviolette. His career huck rate sits at just 63.41 percent, and he’s connected on just 54.55 percent of them in 2026.

Still, Brooks is aggressive and will take his deep shots. There’s also a good chance Thoreson takes some as well. But figuring out who will strike and when is the puzzle Austin must solve, and that unpredictability is the major element Laviolette’s presence brings. Even if Laviolette turns into the clear top deep thrower, he’s paired with three of the best huck receivers in the UFA, making it extremely difficult for the Sol to predict who he will target.

* Huck stats began in 2021

Indianapolis AlleyCats: 87.13

No player has impacted his team more than Elliot Hawkins. The breakout star of 2026 has almost single-handedly powered his team to wins, demonstrating his value all over the field, but mainly as a playmaker. He’s putting up more total scores per game than anyone in the league, even Tobe Decraene, at 9.2. He ranks second in the league in completed hucks this year, with 31. But these figures don’t capture the whole picture, since they’re heavily inflated by his absurd stat lines racked up against weak defenses. What matters is whether he can sustain MVP-level numbers against Minnesota this week, but is that actually realistic?

In his only matchups against efficient defenses this year, Hawkins struggled more than usual. Facing Minnesota and Toronto, the best opposing defenses in terms of efficiency, Hawkins completed just 87.13 percent of his 66 total throws. These struggles can easily get overshadowed by his 12 combined scores and over 1,100 total yards across those two games.

If Indy hopes to have a chance against Minnesota, I’d expect that Hawkins would have be far more efficient, which might mean performing at a higher level than he’s shown all season. Fortunately for him, Minnesota’s defense enters the game struggling against opposing QB1s.

Over Minnesota’s last three games, they’ve allowed the following stat lines to QB1s:

  • Nico Ranabhat - five assists, 95 percent completion rate on 42 throws 

  • Decraene - nine assists, 94 percent completion rate on 53 throws 

  • Will Hoffenkamp  - five assists, 94 percent completion rate on 73 throws

So with the chance there for Hawkins to shine, will he seize it?

Minnesota Wind Chill: 13.17

If it hasn't been obvious already, take a look back at the 2026 Wind Chill and stack them up against their previous three seasons, each of which ended with a trip to Championship Weekend. 

This season, Minnesota is averaging only 13.17 turnovers per game, compared to 18.85 per game from 2023-2025. Seeing this level of improvement from the Chill was almost impossible to predict, and it stands as the strongest case for a deep run this year.

In both of Minnesota's playoff defeats across the past three seasons, they came out on the wrong side of the turnover margin. They averaged 18.5 turns per game in those losses, nearly identical to their per-game average since 2023. But entering the Divisional Championship Game, things couldn't look better for the Chill. 

Up next is a favorable matchup against a squad they've beaten twice cleanly this season, the AlleyCats. Across their two victories over Indy, won by an average margin of six goals per game, the Chill turned it over just 12.5 times per game. 

And their most recent matchup against one of the remaining eight teams was likely their most difficult test of the season, a rematch with the reigning champions, yet they once again outperformed expectations with another clean effort. The Chill wrapped up with only 14 turnovers, their lowest total against a playoff opponent outside the Central Division.

New York Empire: 9.5

If New York is going to topple the defending champs and reach Championship Weekend for the first time since 2023, it’s probably going to take an elite performance from Daan de Marrée.

Fortunately for the Empire, last year’s Rookie of the Year is peaking right as they head into their biggest game of the season.

Following a somewhat underwhelming performance in his only playoff appearance last year, De Marrée quieted doubters with a dominant showing against DC in the opening round of the 2026 playoffs. This followed his best game of the year, which came in New York’s season finale versus the Rush. Over his last two games, his plus/minus per game sits at a staggering plus 9.5.

His playmaking has stood out clearly, particularly in New York’s conversion numbers. The Empire have posted a 91.5 percent hold rate over their last two games, and their 88 percent rate against DC in the playoff opener was their highest against any postseason opponent all year.

They also connected on 10 hucks in that game, their most against a playoff team all season, largely thanks to De Marrée. The Belgian standout hauled in four hucks and threw one himself against a Breeze defense that had been fairly tough against deep shots this year (59.60 percent opponent huck rate). His four huck catches marked his best single-game total this year, and facing a Glory defense that hasn’t been impenetrable this season (60.29 percent opponent huck rate), he should be able to deliver once again.

But we shouldn’t forget it was at this exact stage of the playoffs, the quarterfinals, where De Marrée’s level dipped last postseason. His completion rate slipped to 91.49, and his plus/minus dropped to +5 after averaging +12.25 across the four games leading up to his postseason debut.

Will De Marrée play better in this year’s quarterfinal? It could very well be the deciding factor in New York advancing versus falling short of a final four berth for the third straight year.

Oakland Spiders: 73.5

A year ago, Salt Lake edged out the Oakland Spiders by a single goal, and Oakland’s big problem was finishing drives in the red zone.

Their red zone conversion rate landed at 52 percent in the West Division title game, with scores on just 12 of 23 chances.

Even though the Spiders’ red zone play has clearly gotten better this year, they’ve only converted 73.5 percent of their chances across their past two matchups with the Shred. And they’re entering this year’s title game carrying some worries that could hurt their red zone output.

Daniel Ritthaler, the third-year breakout star who posted more total scores per game than any other Spider, is set to sit out Saturday’s matchup. Ritthaler’s efficiency tops that of the other O-line standouts on the roster, and he recently excelled against the Shred in one of Oakland’s most recent contests, so his absence should be noticeable in the red zone on Saturday.

Additionally, Walker Frankenberg is listed as questionable, which is not a good sign considering that he had a full bye week to recover from any injuries. If Frankenberg isn’t at 100 percent, they will struggle even more to make plays in the red zone. Frankenberg is currently fourth on the team in total scores, with 45. 

Can Oakland’s other leading O-line handlers get the job done in the red zone? Based on their track records, there’s certainly reason for concern.

Salt Lake Shred: 67

Have Bryce Merrill’s experiments finally paid off? The well-known Salt Lake head coach has been adjusting his lineup for some time now, and over the past few weeks, it finally seems like his changes are working. Salt Lake’s last three games mark the first stretch all year they’ve posted a hold rate of 67 percent or higher in three straight contests.

The most significant moves were shifting Simon Dastrup and Oscar Brown to the O-line, and moving Ben Ashton to the D-line. Dastrup has been the largest contributor to Salt Lake’s offensive improvement, emerging as one of the team’s most-targeted receivers. His two largest receiving games have both come in Salt Lake’s last three outings, and three of his five 200+ receiving yard performances have come in the team’s last five games.

While Brown’s numbers haven’t been as dramatic as Dastrup’s, he’s arguably taken the biggest career jump of any Shred player in recent weeks. The rising star notched single-game career bests in receiving yards, throwing yards, total yards, plus/minus, completions, and hockey assists over Salt Lake’s last two games.

Ashton posted by far the lowest completion percentage of any O-liner this year, so a shift back to the D-line was overdue. He committed the most turnovers of any Shred player during the regular season with 20, so it’s no surprise that Salt Lake’s hold rate has climbed since his full-time O-line role ended in Week 11.

Their two most efficient offensive performances of the season have come within their last three, with one of those arriving in their first-round playoff win over the Cascades. It’s worth noting that while neither showing came against their upcoming opponent, Oakland, they turned in their most efficient game of their three matchups against the Spiders in their most recent meeting in Week 13.