July 2, 2026
By Sam Weiger
Week 11 brings some compelling storylines, headlined by a thrilling three-team fight for the final playoff berth in the Central Division. Meanwhile, two pivotal West Division matchups could determine who locks up the second seed.
Chicago Union at Minnesota Wind Chill
Friday, July 3 - 8:00 PM/ET - Watch link
A 1-6 record hasn’t eliminated Chicago from playoff contention just yet. The question is whether the Union can realistically challenge an unbeaten Minnesota side that has outscored them by 7.5 goals per game across two meetings.
The Wind Chill may be the UFA’s best team, and they’ve looked the part against one of the toughest schedules in the league. Wins over Chicago twice, Oakland, Salt Lake, Madison, and Indy twice tell the story. Six of those seven victories were comfortable, and there’s no reason to think that trend ends now against Chicago, even if they’re fighting for their playoff lives.
Chicago’s rising defense will be the key to a massive upset. In their last two games against Indy and Madison, they’ve held opponents to 16 goals per game, with the most recent matchup against the Rads standing as their best defensive showing of the season. They limited Madison to a 58 percent hold rate, only three completed hucks, and a 67 percent red zone conversion rate.
That said, turnovers have been a persistent problem, and they can’t afford to let that continue. Minnesota generates 21.12 opponents turns per game, making this about as difficult a matchup as Chicago could face. Unlike a year ago, when the Union offense was effective against any defense, this version of Chicago has struggled. The Union rank third-worst in the UFA at just 15.29 goals per game.
The Chill, surrendering just 15.63 goals per game, are eager to complete a season sweep after Chicago swept them a year ago. Still, Minnesota will be without Noah Coolman, Tristan Van de Moortele, Max Hanscom, and Jordan Taylor, and Bryan Vohnoutka.
Even accounting for those absences, Minnesota’s roster depth and home-field advantage make them favorites. Eight of their top 10 players by Total Adjusted Expected Contribution (Tot-aEC) remain available, including Nate de Morgan, a player I flagged as a potential 2026 breakout candidate and the name I’m watching most closely here. Fresh off his most impactful game of the season, de Morgan is quietly cementing himself as one of Minnesota’s most dangerous contributors. His breakout is happening in real time, and Chicago’s most glaring vulnerability—defending the deep ball—sets up an ideal matchup for the speedy receiver.
One Big Number:
4.3 - De Morgan is tied for the top Tot-aEC per game among all Wind Chill players at 4.3. Morgan is tied for the highest Tot-aEC per game of any Wind Chill player, with an average score of 4.3.
21 - Chicago averaged 21 turnovers per game across their last two outings.
Indianapolis AlleyCats at Madison Radicals | Friday Night Frisbee
Friday, July 3 - 8:00 PM/ET - Watch on YouTube
The AlleyCats haven’t delivered on the lofty expectations that followed a transformative offseason, but a playoff berth is still attainable, and this week gives them a genuine shot at keeping that hope alive.
After last week’s blowout loss to Madison, it became clear that Indy needed to get their core players back after losing a significant group of them to a tournament in North Carolina.
That core of Elliot Hawkins, Will Wettengel, Nate Little, Kai Creed, and Jonathan Mast is all set to return and suit up against the Rads. It’ll be the first time since June 14 their Week 8 meeting that this group is active alongside dynamic receiver Sofiène Bontemps. That earlier matchup at Breese Stevens Field was Indy’s strongest showing against Madison this year, a one-goal defeat filled with momentum swings and lead changes.
One significant player battle worth revisiting: Max Sample versus Wettengel, the defining duel of that Week 8 contest. Sample came out on top in a surprise result, outplaying one of the league’s premier defenders and finishing with a career-high plus/minus in Madison’s narrow victory. Expect Wettengel to come into this rematch with something to prove.
Hawkins also seeks revenge after having his worst statistical game of the season against the Rads in Week 8. The miscues looked more nervy than schematic, and he’s already bounced back, coming back two weeks later against Chicago with seven assists and a perfect huck completion rate on four attempts. While he’s been inconsistent overall this year, he’s shown the ability to singlehandedly take over games, operating efficiently as both a handler and cutter.
Even if both Wettengel and Hawkins step up, Indy will need to solve a Madison handler duo that continues to elevate its play: Nico Ranabhat and Gabe Vordick. Both are in the middle of career seasons and have been ruthlessly efficient against the ’Cats specifically. Will Indy’s defense, which has underperformed relative to preseason expectations, elevate its level? Can players like Little and James Pollard, both down in blocks per game this year, disrupt these two and make Rads possessions feel harder than they have been?
One Big Number:
10 - Hawkins, Wettengel, Little, Creed, and Mast all rank inside the team’s top 10 in Tot-aEC.
97.14 - Ranabhat (40 completions per game vs. Indy) and Vordick (43 completions per game vs. Indy) have combined for a 97.14 percent completion rate against the AlleyCats this season.
Seattle Cascades at Colorado Apex
Friday, July 3 - 9:00 PM/ET - Watch link
Following their defeat to the Oakland Spiders last week, Colorado’s playoff chances are all but gone, but they still have the power to reshape the West Division seeding picture with a victory over Seattle on Friday.
The Cascades and the Shred are locked in a battle for the West’s second seed, which comes with the reward of home-field advantage in the opening round of the playoffs. Seattle has won at Zions Bank Stadium just once in the last four years, and that lone victory was a one-goal thriller that wasn’t decided until the final moments. Add to that the fact that Seattle has already knocked off Salt Lake on their own turf this season.
So this game carries genuine weight in the bigger picture, and it’ll likely come down to a couple key variables.
For Colorado, the central unknown is Quinn Finer. Listed as questionable heading into Friday, Finer has been the difference-maker that elevates this Apex squad into legitimate playoff competition when he’s on the field. Take him out of the equation, however, and Colorado has managed just one win across seven games and looked listless offensively.
Should Finer sit out or be limited, attention turns to Nanda Min-Fink and Seth Faris taking shots against Seattle’s huck defense. The Cascades have been surrendering deep shots at an increasing rate as the season has worn on, but Min-Fink and Faris have struggled with consistency as Colorado’s primary deep throwers when Finer has missed time. Keep an eye on the Faris–Benen Shea connection, which ranks as the 10th most productive pairing in the entire league. If those two get in sync on deep balls, it has the potential to create real headaches for Seattle’s D-line.
One Big Number:
16 - Colorado is averaging just 16 goals per game without Finer in the lineup, as compared to 22.66 with him active.
14 - The Cascades have given up an average of 14 hucks per game in their last two.
Seattle Cascades at Salt Lake Shred | Game of the Week
Saturday, July 4 - 9:00 PM/ET - Watch link
Seattle’s Friday clash with Colorado sets the table nicely for the marquee matchup the following night, when the Cascades and Shred square off in a battle between the two teams fighting for the West’s second seed.
If Salt Lake is going to avenge their Week 8 loss to Seattle, they’ll want to cut the errors down. Turnovers have been a recurring problem for the Shred, a franchise long synonymous with efficiency. Turnovers could decide the game, as Seattle has been coughing it up at an elevated rate as well. The ‘Scades in general have been too predictable with their throws, so along with turnovers, opponents are getting plenty of blocks against them. Opponents are generating over 10 blocks per game against the Cascades, and now they face a Shred defense that has shown signs of life in recent weeks.
Salt Lake is getting more defensive production thanks to players like Simon Dastrup and Alex Forsberg stepping up. I’ll be keeping a close eye on both, since Dastrup currently leads the Shred in blocks, while Forsberg led the team a year ago. Can they shift the game in Salt Lake’s favor?
On top of that, Seattle isn’t riding much momentum into this one. A five-goal loss to the Rush was followed by a narrower-than-expected result against the Oregon Steel. The Cascades’ deep game has lost its edge recently, dipping well below their season huck completion rate of 75.29 percent. Against Toronto and Oregon, they connected on just 62 percent of their huck attempts.
Seattle really needs a skilled handler to step up and take some of the weight off Spencer Lofink, who has been carrying as the primary playmaking QB1. Most playoff-caliber teams feature multiple players with at least 20 assists, but Seattle has just Lofink. Marc Munoz and Kodi Smart have both fallen short of expectations, leaving it to someone like Garrett Martin or Conor Belfield, the other legitimate playmaking handlers, to level up against the improving Shred D-line.
The Shred have yet to lose to the Cascades twice in a single season. Coming off back-to-back losses and playing at home on the Fourth of July, Salt Lake will be very motivated. Last year on this date, the Shred dismantled Colorado 24-18 at Zion’s Bank Stadium in what was their finest all-around effort of the season.
One Big Number:
10 - Salt Lake is averaging 10 blocks per game over their last four outings, all against playoff-caliber competition: Madison, Minnesota, Oakland, and Seattle.
12 - Oregon blocked Seattle 12 times last week, the most blocks the Steel have recorded in a single game all season.
Minnesota Wind Chill at Pittsburgh Thunderbirds
Sunday, July 5 - 2:00 PM/ET - Watch link
It’s been a while since Pittsburgh was relevant this late into the season, but the T-Birds have found a way to stay in the playoff mix. Their resume doesn’t exactly inspire confidence that they can topple the elite Wind Chill, but a win over Chicago gives them at least some credibility heading into Sunday’s matinee.
Pittsburgh has their work cut out for them, as their remaining schedule raises serious questions about their postseason viability. After this daunting matchup with Minnesota, they still face Madison, Indy twice, and Chicago to close out the year.
If the T-Birds are going to navigate that gauntlet and give Minnesota a game, it has to come through their offense. The spotlight falls onto Will Hoffenkamp, who has been the singular engine behind both Pittsburgh victories this season. He’s the reason this team is even in the conversation, and he’s on track to deliver the best statistical year of his career. The third-year star has already set or is on pace to set career-highs in assists, goals, plus/minus, Tot-aEC, huck completions, hucks caught, throwing yards, and player impact ratings.
The problem is that one-dimensional offenses typically struggle against Minnesota. The Chill deploy double-teams with discipline and haven’t allowed any opposing QB1 to set the tempo this season. Sure, players like Hawkins have posted respectable stat lines against them, but no QB1 has been able to take over a game against the Chill. If Hoffenkamp can’t dominate on Sunday, Pittsburgh runs out of answers fast.
The absences of Coolman, Bret Bergmeier, Lukas Ambrose, Thomas Shope and potentially Blake Krapfl (questionable) do crack the door open slightly for Pittsburgh. Krapfl in particular has been effective as one the Chill’s double-team specialists, so his status is worth monitoring. But given how much defensive depth Minnesota has, it likely isn’t enough of a break for the T-Birds.
One Big Number:
13.63 - The Wind Chill are committing just 13.63 turns per game this year, as compared to 18.75 turns last year.
67 - Hoffenkamp averaged 67 completions per game in Pittsburgh’s two victories this season.
Indianapolis AlleyCats at Chicago Union
Sunday, July 5 - 5:00 PM/ET - Watch link
Both Indy and Chicago come out of Week 11’s Friday slate with just one day of rest before squaring off in their last regular season meeting, the only game this weekend featuring two of the three teams scrapping for the Central’s third seed.
The Union have dropped three consecutive games heading into Week 11, and what concerns me most is that they’ve gotten some notable contributors back during this slide, like Henry Goldenberg and Nate Astrom, after lengthy absences. For a roster with plenty of talent on paper, the fall from last year’s standard has been baffling.
There’s something about this weekend that feels like a Chicago win is coming, because a team this talented simply doesn’t finish 1-8 over their first nine.
If Chicago falls to Minnesota on Friday, this game shifts into must-win territory. A loss to Indy would put them at least two games behind the AlleyCats with three games left for both teams, and Indy’s final three includes two dates with Pittsburgh.
The Union must perform better offensively against Indy’s defense, which has not met expectations this season. This game sets the stage beautifully for the Pawel Janas–Ben Preiss connection. The two were excellent against the ‘Cats in their last meeting, with Janas going five-for-six on hucks and Preiss leading all scorers with five goals. The huck connection between them looked genuinely lethal against this specific opponent, and there’s every reason to think they’ll look to exploit it again.
For Indy, Hawkins steps into this one as the ultimate Chicago tormentor. He’s racked up 22 assists in two games against the Union this year, and coming off back-to-back dominant performances, you’d expect Chicago to make stopping him their top priority. But after failing to contain him after his 15-assist masterclass, I’m starting to wonder whether they actually can. Hawkins’ IQ and ability to read the field make him an extraordinarily difficult cover, and he was the central reason Indy pulled away from Chicago in Week 9.
One Big Number:
48.1 - Janas and Preiss accounted for 48.1 percent of Chicago’s entire total aEC made.
53.84 - Hawkins was involved as the thrower or receiver on 53.84 percent of Indy’s completed hucks in their most recent matchup against Chicago.
