August 8, 2024
By Sam Weiger

Boston Glory at DC Breeze
Saturday, August 10 - 7:00 PM/ET - Watch link

For the first time since 2017, New York won’t claim the East Division title. 

For the first time ever, the title will go to Boston or DC.

The Breeze hold the unfortunate distinction of being the only UFA team to reach five Division Championship Games without securing a victory.

But this year's East Division title game presents an unprecedented scenario for DC. Never before have they entered this contest with such dominance, consecutively crushing two championship-caliber teams at the end of the regular season. 

Their relentless defensive pressure has been the cornerstone of their recent success. Defensive coordinator Alex Crew has employed innovative strategies, including ferocious deep-zone pressure (shout out to Thomas Edmonds, Jasper Tom, and David Bloodgood) and surprise roller pulls, to disrupt opposing offenses.

One huge matchup to watch is DC’s defense against Ben Sadok. Sadok, Boston’s QB1, is averaging 54.67 completions per game in the team’s last three games. He’s been hot and cold throughout his career, and in a game where errors could come at a premium, it’s possible that the Breeze focus on getting them out of Sadok. 

The Breeze D-line's performance on break opportunities will be another focal point. They've excelled in this area since Week 7, but struggled earlier in the season, especially against Boston.

D-lines have found it difficult to score on the Glory this year, converting only 42.59 percent of their possessions. But Boston’s defensive effectiveness against opposing D-lines has waned recently. With DC’s D-line offense on the rise, a favorable matchup is on the horizon. Keep a watchful eye on DC's D-line when they have the disc.

One Big Number:
51.66 - In their last three games, the Glory have surrendered a 51.66 percent conversion rate to opposing D-lines: New York, Montreal, and Toronto.
77 - Since Week 7, DC's D-line has boasted a remarkable conversion rate of 77 percent.

Carolina Flyers at Atlanta Hustle
Friday, August 9 - 8:00 PM/ET - Watch link

Atlanta and Carolina’s meeting this Friday marks a record-breaking fifth this year.

Despite one-sided scorelines in their meetings this season, a deeper dive into the statistics reveals a dead heat between the Flyers and Hustle. The teams have split their four contests, with the Flyers holding a slight 81-79 edge in goals and a minimal advantage in hold rate (66.5 percent to 66 percent).

Yet, this evenly matched rivalry takes a sharp turn at Silverbacks Park, where Atlanta has reigned supreme. Atlanta boasts a 4-0 record over the past two seasons against Carolina, outscoring them 91-76.

But none of these four games occurred during the playoffs.

The Flyers' playoff win two weeks ago against Austin, where they committed only nine turnovers, resembled the disciplined squad that averaged 11.33 turnovers per game in the 2021 postseason en route to their first championship.

Before trouncing Austin in the first round, the Flyers played three games in the back half of the regular season against playoff teams, including two in Atlanta. Their turnover average for these contests was 20.33 per game.

While Carolina’s turnover totals have been fluctuating over the last month and a half, there has been one constant: the burgeoning talent of Tobias Brooks. Since joining the O-line midway through the season, he's steadily improved, culminating in a dominant display against the Sol two weeks ago (seven assists, two goals, 611 yards). 

Atlanta’s biggest weapons are expected to play, but they will likely be short-handed for this game with Matt Smith, Lukas McClamrock, and Trip Crowley currently listed as inactive. 

Despite missing several key players in most games this season, the Hustle have maintained an average of 12 turnovers per game. Nonetheless, turns could make or break them this weekend. Their two most turnover-laden games of the season resulted in losses.

One Big Number:
76 - In the last four games at Silverbacks Park between these two teams, the Hustle have averaged a hold rate of 76 percent compared to Carolina's 66 percent.
30 - Brooks has the highest cumulative plus/minus of all quarterfinalists over their last five games (30).

Seattle Cascades at Salt Lake Shred
Saturday, August 10 - 9:00 PM/ET - Watch link

Seattle would instantly become the Cinderella story of the 2024 season with a win over Salt Lake on Saturday night. Why?

1. They finished with a 4-8 record in 2023, a 2-10 record in 2022, and a 3-9 record in 2021.

2. They haven't secured a win against a true championship contender all year.

But the Cascades' dream season might be cut short due to turnovers. Against the Shred, who have a perfect record against teams gifting them 16 or more turnovers in a game over the past two seasons, this weakness could be fatal.

Accuracy has never been a hallmark of Seattle's top throwers, so turnovers are likely to persist. If they find themselves falling behind again early on (trailed 6-2 early in the second quarter in Week 13 against Salt Lake), it will be intriguing to see if they go for more deep shots this time around.

The Cascades lead the league in huck accuracy this year, and their top three huckers (Christian Foster, Garrett Martin, and Spencer Lofink) have completed a stellar 79 percent of their combined 46 deep throws. But the team attempted just two hucks in their late-season defeat to the Shred.

Salt Lake also needs an offensive revival, especially with Championship Weekend approaching. All stats have declined, particularly O-line conversion percentage, so we’ve got questions for them:

1. Is Jordan Kerr fully recovered?

2. Will Jace Duennebeil or Will Selfridge ever have another monster offensive game?

3. Will Sean Connole’s hucking decline continue?

One Big Number:
53.11 - Salt Lake’s O-line conversion rate dropped drastically from 62.82 percent last year (league-best) to 53.11 percent this year (11th in league).
16 - In all six matchups against playoff teams this year, the Cascades turned the disc over at least 16 times.

Madison Radicals at Minnesota Wind Chill
Saturday, August 10 - 7:00 PM/ET - Watch link

Minnesota is the last team standing with a shot at a three-peat as division champions, but they must overcome a surging underdog who's won four straight against worthy opponents.

Madison is still searching for that signature win against a top-eight opponent. Can they find it against the Wind Chill?

The Radicals must prioritize minimizing turnovers, putting head coach Tim DeByl in a tough spot when it comes to quarterback Kai Marcus. Marcus can make big plays but has a tendency for high-risk throws. Although he leads all quarterfinalists in throwing yards per game, he also tops the list for throwaways per game. 

DeByl had previously enforced a more cautious strategy for Marcus, but in the last two games, Marcus has slipped back into his more reckless style. If DeByl intends to keep Marcus as QB1, he needs to reemphasize his conservative offense, or the game could spiral out of control.

But the Wind Chill also have a dilemma: managing injuries. Will Brandt's troublesome heel injury has contributed to Minnesota's less dominant form. Will he fully regain his abilities following a three-week break?

Complicating matters further, key contributors Matthew Rehder, Noah Hanson, and Tanner Barcus are currently inactive for Saturday's game. Rehder's O-line versatility and the defensive impact of Hanson and Barcus will be missed.

One Big Number:
7 - In Madison’s two defeats against the Wind Chill this season, Marcus averaged seven throwaways per game.
28.3 - Brandt had only 28.3 completions per game in his final three games of the season, as compared to 42.5 per game in his first four.