PHOTO BY SHAWN LANZILLO
BY SHAGGY SHRAGIS
As Philadelphia copes with the heat dome, the Phoenix season heats up as the Hotbirds enter their final four game push for the playoffs. Coming out of the bye week, Philadelphia faces Montreal on Saturday in a must win rematch against a Canadian team that crushed the Phoenix at the beginning of June.
While a nine point loss was certainly a blow to morale for Philly fans, the Royal have been a dramatically different team at home and on the road. In Montreal, the Royal are 3-1, and have outscored opponents by 14. On the road, Montreal is 0-4, and has been outscored by 26, a 40 point gap in home and away splits. In an even smaller sample size, Montreal has done an abysmal job navigating their first two double headers. The Royal lost by two to New York in May, before going to Boston and losing by six, then in June beat the Phoenix by nine, then went on the road and lost to last place Toronto by 10. While the Phoenix were entering into the first leg of a back to back last time around, Montreal now finds itself on the other end of a back to back, playing in DC Friday night before making the trip back north to Philadelphia for a Saturday evening game.
Philadelphia has the slight statistical advantage offensively, converting on a higher percentage of O-line opportunities than the Royal have, and completing a higher percentage of passes. Montreal has had a slightly stronger defense this season, creating more break opportunities and converting those opportunities at a slightly higher percentage. The Phoenix defense has struggled this season against quality opponents — as well as Montreal — with a break percentage lower than 20% in all their losses, and higher than 25% in all their wins, capped off by a 44% special at Pittsburgh two weeks ago. If Philly wants to win this game, they will need a bigger performance from the defense than their last outing in Montreal.
The slightly better than average offense will feature a ninth new starting lineup this weekend, with the Grossbergs and Brandon Pastor absent due to conflicts with Team USA and various World Championships — congratulations Sam, Adam and Brandon — while Scott Heyman and Greg Martin will also likely both be out. The biggest struggle this season for Philly’s O-line has been consistency, both within individual matches and game to game, and could continue to be a problem June 28. Several defensive players will be missing Saturday’s game as well, so the coaches will need to get very creative with the different lineup configurations.
Red Zone conversion will be a major sticking point this week in Phoenix practice, and could be the difference in a close game with Montreal. Philadelphia allows the second highest opponent red zone completion of any team in the league, meaning getting close to the goal line has been an almost automatic score against the Hotbirds in 2025. Red zone offense is one of Montreal’s strengths, as they convert on 87% of red zone possessions, good for second best in the league. In the previous matchup Tremblay-Joncas and Jacob Brissette peppered the Phoenix defense with cross field shots in the end zone, and the Royal as a team were a perfect 19/19 on red zone opportunities. Philly will have to step up in those situations if they want a better result.
Another factor will be the weather. While the oppressive heat dome should start to burst Wednesday evening, Saturday’s forecast currently calls for wind and rain. That could play in the Phoenix’s favor, as adverse conditions will make some of the touch throws favored by the Royal more difficult, but it could also add an additional complication to a team that will be down several starters on Saturday. Either way, fans should make sure to bring an umbrella or rain jacket.
Philly can conceivably still make the playoffs despite losing this game and it is even possible for the Phoenix to make the playoffs with just a single win against the DC Breeze in the last game of the season, if every other team plays along. However, it is far easier for the Hotbirds to reach the postseason if they can take care of business at home against Montreal. Philadelphia has won two straight home games against the Montreal Royal, and has not lost at home to a Canadian team since 2022, but no two games are the same in the UFA, and the first part of the final push for the playoffs starts at home. Don’t miss out on your chance to see the action live, get your tickets for Saturday’s 6 p.m. match up at Neumann University.
