May 7, 2024
By Evan Lepler
The dynasty might be over.
Hyperbole, perhaps.
Or perhaps not.
Maybe it’s exactly the reinvigorating result that New York needed, as Empire veteran Marques Brownlee declared on his Instagram story right after the game. Or maybe there are deeper issues that are not so simply solved, and the UFA’s two-time reigning champions are the title favorites no more?
I’m not here to bury New York. That would be foolish and dumb. But I am going to point out some things that are obviously true.
The Empire have not figured out their new identity without Jeff Babbitt, Ben Katz, John Lithio, and Ryan Osgar. Those were four pillar players, guys who could always deliver on the field and also were important strategic minds in the huddles and on the sideline.
Speaking of strategy and sidelines, you cannot overlook the departure of Charlie Hoppes either. It’s not the sole reason why the Empire are different this year, obviously, but it also definitely matters. He and Anthony Nuñez were partners in leading New York, along with a devoted braintrust of captains, for the previous three seasons. While we cannot completely know the internal behind-the-scenes dynamics, it is clear that things have changed.
Another truth: the Empire defense has dropped a level from Championship Weekend.
On one hand, of course it has. We’re only in Week 2 of the season. They are not presently peaking, nor do they need to be.
But remember when New York’s D converted 24 breaks against Austin and Salt Lake last August? That domination was barely an afterthought this past Saturday as Atlanta’s O went unbroken for nearly four full quarters. All the Empire defense could muster was a relatively meaningless conversion with 98 seconds left.
It was the 158th game in New York’s franchise history, and Saturday was just the second time the Empire did not produce more than one break, joining a 31-16 postseason stomping against Toronto back in 2014. That was a different era in ultimate, for sure, but also a reminder that success is not everlasting.
There was a time when the Empire were winless in 17 all-time meetings against the Rush. Then, in the 2018 playoffs, it flipped, and New York has not lost to Toronto since.
The Empire went 55-37 in their first 92 games of existence, a consistent playoff contender but never a true championship threat.
Then, prior to Saturday’s loss in Atlanta, New York went 61-4, an absolutely brilliant half-decade of historic, excellent ultimate. This era has undeniably pushed the UFA forward and redefined what elite frisbee looks like. The four losses—by margins of 3, 3, 1, and 3—were all games that New York could have won if a couple bounces went the other way.
And that’s why, categorically, this past weekend was different.
The Hustle rolled the Empire by five, and it felt like more.
Atlanta’s athletes didn’t just handle the pressure; they dictated it.
The 50/50 battles were consistently won by the Hustle, a reality that had to subtly, if not substantially, shake New York’s confidence a decent bit.
Deep down, the Empire players understand that things have changed. It wasn’t always easy—despite some of the wide margins of the past—but there’s no doubt it’s harder now.
They might be able reassess, recalibrate, and return to something that resembles the level they achieved over the past half-decade. But even that might not prolong the dynasty, considering their perpetual greatness also inevitably pushed the other top teams to be better.
Frankly, that will be a huge part of New York’s legacy. And it also could play a part in their demise.
After the game, Nuñez said that there would be changes made during the upcoming bye week, and the Empire would probably have a totally different look when they face Boston on May 17. With a 1-1 record for the first time in six years, they still have 10 regular season games left to try and reach their potential, 40 more quarters to show that they can still be the juggernaut that went nearly 1,000 days without a single loss.
Maybe they will re-find that form. Or maybe we truly are entering a new era, where the rest of the league’s elite has caught up the Empire’s longstanding excellence.
Time will tell, but this could be the most compelling championship chase in quite some time.
The Full Field Layout
If the Empire are no longer the favorite, then who fills that vacuum?
The Atlanta Hustle, at their best, surely are in the conversation. While you cannot completely ignore their own Week 1 clunker at Carolina, you can recognize that their ceiling is among the highest in the entire Association.
“Obviously, that felt great,” said Atlanta veteran Matt Smith, shortly after the 20-15 Hustle victory concluded. “I’m not gonna say it’s totally unexpected though. [New York] didn’t look great last week [vs. Montreal]. Let’s not forget, they [were] 0-1 down here [in Atlanta] before this. That’s our base, and we’re looking forward to growing, and watch out the rest of the league.”
Indeed, New York’s last two regular season losses have both come in Atlanta, a mere 1,015 days apart. If the Hustle can prove that Saturday was, in fact, their base and not their best, then every other opponent should be wary.
Atlanta had just eight turnovers in 48 minutes on Saturday, the fewest of any team in a game so far this season. Their army of athletes—Justin Burnett, Dean Ramsey, Jakeem Polk, just to name a few—swarmed and stymied the Empire rhythm. On offense, Bobby Ley dazzled with a mistake-free masterpiece, connecting with Christian Olsen, Brett Hulsmeyer, and others with ease. And, to be fair, they also had had some good fortune bounce their way, like when Trenton Spinks caught his first career Callahan off a shocking doink from Elliott Chartock.
But the Hustle entered the night truly believing that their athletes matched up well with New York. They thought their depth, speed, and determination could wear the Empire down, and they were right.
They also were primed by their coach, who has a knack for knocking dynasties off their path.
After the game, Tuba Benson-Jaja revealed that he utilized the same exact pregame warmup, mentality, and message that he used when his Jacksonville Cannons ended Dallas’ 23-game winning streak back in 2017. It worked.
The question going forward will be, can they continue to rise up the same way we saw on Saturday?
Inevitably, there will be a letdown, and that’s not isolated to Atlanta. Every team in the league will experience ebbs and flows to their seasons, created by absences, injuries, and adjustments. In every sport, it’s impossible to simply bottle up one’s best. It requires continued commitment, intentional devotion, and also some luck.
Everything was working for Atlanta on Saturday against New York. We shall see if the Hustle, with Hulsmeyer unavailable this coming weekend, can still rekindle that mojo at Carolina.
Either way, we know their best is tremendous, and that data point, like the Empire’s dynasty, won’t be forgotten any time soon.
*****
Other candidates who could currently be considered the UFA championship favorite? Carolina, idle in Week 2, certainly merits mention after their eight-goal win over Atlanta in Week 1, though the Flyers will also need to meet the moment on the road in coming months.
There’s also the Salt Lake Shred, who went 2-0 through SoCal this past weekend and presently reside as the only 3-0 team in the league. The Shred have now won 16 consecutive games against teams not named New York.
But if you ask Salt Lake’s leaders about how they’re feeling, it’s not exactly all sunshine and smiles either. Obviously, they were delighted to escape San Diego and Los Angeles with a pair of victories, but they generally characterized the weekend as a mixed bag, not necessarily measuring up to their high standards.
“San Diego was a bit of a surprise for us,” said Salt Lake’s Sean Connole. “[Coach] Bryce [Merrill] and Grant [Lindsley] both warned us that if we expected to waltz into the San Diego game and take them to the house, we’d be in for a hard game. To their credit, they did just that. I think we threw close to 400 throws in that game…Our O-line handlers struggled to connect to the downfield cutters, and it seemed pretty apparent that we were missing Will [Selfridge].”
Indeed, the Shred needed 383 completions, the most for any team in a game so far this season, to score 19 goals and outlast the Growlers 19-17 on Friday evening. In many ways, it was laudable that they figured out a way to prevail with just 12 turns on so many passes, but it was also an uncomfortable way to win. Consider that they required 140 fewer completions in their 23-20 victory over the Breeze in Week 1. For additional perspective, recognize that over the past two seasons, no team ever won a game throwing that many passes. Since the start of 2022, Detroit is the only team who’s completed more than 383 passes in a single game, and that came last July in a nine-goal loss against Madison.
“The coaches did a great job coming up with a game plan that I think clearly frustrated Salt Lake’s offense and gave us plenty of opportunities,” said Growlers Captain Kyle Rubin. “I think our defensive pressure was phenomenal all game, and there were really just a few moments that, I think if they break differently, we are able to pull out the win [...] Marshall Crawford had a huge block on Salt Lake’s side of the field, but unfortunately the disc stayed up and Jacob Miller was able to bring it in just before the sideline. I think if we get that turn and punch in the break to tie, the energy would have exploded and it would’ve been anyone’s game in the final minutes.”
On Saturday in Los Angeles, the Shred jumped on the Aviators 8-2 and it looked like the rout was on. But the mood quickly changed, and Salt Lake’s Jacob Miller used the word ‘immature’ to describe the Shred’s offense over the final three quarters.
“We were unsure whether we were going to beat them by double digits or let them back in,” said Miller. “And when there’s a question, that usually means you’re not ready to really maintain a lead like that.”
The Aviators kept battling and were back within three by the end of the third, but the Shred never let their lead shrink less than two over the final 12 minutes.
“In all, we don’t feel very polished yet,” said Miller. “Our team is very similar to last year with similar roles and familiarity, for the most part. The mental question is how do you set expectations when you made the championship game with a practically equivalent team in terms of talent and continuity, but knowing that multiple pivotal games last season could’ve gone a different way? One of my favorite stats mantras is relevant here: ‘luck is a first order term, but a bad teacher.’”
Road wins in this league are rarely easy and should never be taken for granted, but it does speak to Salt Lake’s high expectations and the wide open feeling across the league that the only 3-0 team is not exactly flying high. The Shred are off this coming weekend before another tough two-game trip, with battles at Oakland and Colorado beckoning in Week 4.
“I know I’m personally disappointed with our red-zone efficiency and our ability to cut [for] our teammates on a consistent basis,” added Connole. “We’ve got a lot of talented individuals and a great system that we run, but we need to do the work off disc for us to have success the rest of the season.”
Meanwhile, the Aviators dipped to 0-2, and while they made it all the way to the West Division title game after a 1-3 start last season, it’s been an undeniably disappointing first couple weeks of the new season for LA.
“We got absolutely walloped in the first quarter,” said Aviators’ veteran Sean McDougall. “Some of it [was] self-induced and other bits from Salt Lake’s athletic defense. It was honestly a mixture of us trying some new things offensively, missing a few key O-line members that help anchor us down, and trying to integrate our newer members into a system that’s a bit different than in the past.”
A year ago, there were some testy moments between team leaders that helped to trigger the turnaround. Could history repeat itself?
“It may come down to what happened last year, where there is a catalyst that forces us all to reevaluate what we bring to the team and how we can all help each other,” said McDougall. “That, and have a game where all the O-line members are there. Hopefully it won’t come to it, but knowing how spicy some of our personalities are, I wouldn’t be surprised or shocked. Good news is that we have good players, commitment across the board, and a hard-working leadership crew trying to help us navigate this again, so I’m expecting us to just get better.”
The Aviators do play their next five games against Portland, Seattle, and San Diego, so there’s certainly a roadmap back into contention if they can avoid the couple bad quarters that plagued them the first two weeks.
Coming later today in "Seven On The Line", Colorado debuts a new-look offense, Seattle cements its spot in the mix out West, Boston and DC both cruise in advance of their upcoming Friday showdown, and all the rest from a memorable Week 2.