(photo by Marshall Lian)
The Philadelphia Phoenix (0-3) travel up the Jersey Turnpike to take on the first place New York Empire (3-1). The Phoenix are desperately seeking their first win of the season, while New York looks to continue their dominance over the Eastern Division. The Empire have not lost a game to an Eastern Division opponent since 2021, and have not lost to the Phoenix since 2017.
Despite the Empire’s dominant streak, they have looked shakier in 2024 than they have at any point since their 2019 title. After a 3 year stretch that saw them consistently in the top 3 in all offensive categories, the Empire head into Week 5 with just average offensive numbers. After finishing last season second in both their hold rate and their offensive conversion percentage, New York now sits at 12th in those categories, slightly below average for the league.
A big reason for their precipitous drop in offensive conversions is the notable absences of the MVPs from 2021 to 2023: Ryan Osgar and Jeff Babbitt, and specifically their ability to blow open the deep game. In 2023, New York was top 5 in huck completions, led by Ryan Osgar, who completed an astonishing 80% of his 44 huck attempts, and supported by a similarly gaudy 80% on 25 attempts from Elliot Chartock. This season, Osgar is gone, Elliot Chartock has only played in a single game—in which he attempted no hucks—and the downfield targets of Babbitt and Lithio are playing for Boston and Chicago respectively. The result is an Empire team ranked second to last in both huck attempts and huck completions, compared to their top 10 finish in those categories a year ago.
Similarly, the defense has taken major steps backwards for the once feared New York squad. The Empire finished 2023 2nd in D-line Conversion, break percentage, blocks per game, and breaks per game. This season, they are outside the top 10 in all of those categories, and 5th to last in blocks per game. This is a team that, theoretically, features such defensive stalwarts as Marques Brownlee, Antoine Davis, John Randolph, and the UFA block leading Drost brothers. The eye test backs up the numbers. Of Boston’s 12 turnovers in the week 4 game against the Empire, New York was credited with 6 blocks, and only three of those—two hand blocks and a Bretton Tan sky over defending MVP Jeff Babbitt—could be considered “earned”. This defense is simply not applying pressure like they have over the past few years.
However, if there is a team that is applying even less pressure than the New York Empire, it is the Philadelphia Phoenix. The Phoenix come into this game forcing a league worst 9.7 opponent turns per game. For reference, no team has ever finished a season with opponents averaging fewer than 15 opponent turnovers per game, and the Phoenix cannot scrape together 10.
Philadelphia’s soft coverages have gotten too soft, and teams are completing a league best 96.8% of passes against them. Despite giving up easy underneath throws, the Phoenix are also getting torched deep. Philadelphia is second worst in the league at defending the deep game, allowing opponents to convert 72% of their long shots. Last season the Hotbirds had 6 players with double-digit blocks, this year only Max Trifillis and Mike Campanella are on pace to match that mark. The defense sorely misses Paul Owens, whose talents are currently employed in trying to save an offense that was adrift until Saturday.
The only cure for the defensive woes of the Hotbirds at the moment would be to play their own offense. Despite 27 blocks from opposing defenses, the Phoenix have turned it over 50 times, meaning that half their turnovers do not involve the other team touching the disc. Even with last week’s impressive offensive game against the DC Breeze, Philadelphia still ranks second to last in hold rate, and is bottom 5 in offensive conversion. The Phoenix cannot seem to score cleanly, and they struggle to get the disc back when they turn it over. This could be more difficult this week, as the Phoenix will be without center handler Alex Thorne, who had a bounce back week 4 performance—39 completions, 100% completion rate, 3 assists, 1 goal.
One area of strength for Philadelphia is the deep game. Neither team defends the huck particularly well, but New York does not seem to be completing them at a good clip. Philadelphia, on the other hand, vaulted themselves into top 3 in huck completion percentage after going 11/11 in DC last weekend. In the last meeting between these two teams—May 20 last year—Philadelphia completed 12 of 15 deep looks for an astonishing 80%, and that was with Ben Jagt playing on defense. His shift to offense should provide even more open air downfield for Philly throwers to hurl 50/50 balls into. That game was one of James Pollards best as a receiver, with 415 yards catching and 280 throwing. After coming off nearly a 1000 yard performance last week, Big Game James looks primed for another strong game.
The deciding factor for this contest will be if Philadelphia’s defense can do anything to get the disc in their hands. Philadelphia is converting an astonishing 75% of break chances, but they are doing it on just 8 total break attempts. It is impressive that they can work the disc that well, but it is distressing that they are averaging just under 3 opportunities a game. If the Hotbirds can get blocks, or at the very least force turnovers from a New York offense that has started the season on shaky ground, they will have a lead in this game going into the fourth quarter.
Philadelphia has had a bad start to the season, but who cares. The Hotbirds have bounced back from 0-3 starts each of the last two seasons under head coach Roger Chu. Frisbee is a game of runs, and so is the UFA season. The Phoenix played the best offensive game in the franchise’s history last week, and their defense seems poised to link arms in solidarity and topple the Empire in Week 5. Philly over New York 18-15. Go Birds.
